How to use the past to prepare for the future [#65]

We’re now as far away from the year 2040 as we are from the year 2010.

Kind of crazy to think about, eh? 2040 seems like a futuristic imagination from a science fiction book, whereas 2010 doesn’t feel too long ago. 

→ Miroslav Klose dominates the World Cup in South Africa

→ The Burj Khalifa is opened

→ Instagram launches

That’s not that long ago. And yet, 2040 feels insanely far away. 

Thinking about this, I was wondering: how can we best prepare for life in 2040? 

I don’t know, but history does repeat itself – so I wanted to take a look at advice being put out in 2010 on how to prepare for the next 15 years. Maybe there’s something we can learn from the past. 

So I went down a deep rabbit hole of reading blog posts from 2008-2010, did a lot of Perplexity prompting, and was … somehow not surprised. 

Most advice is exactly the same that you’d read today. 

For example, take this blog post on beating procrastination from 2011: 

“Identify the most important thing you have to do today.

Decide to do just the first little part of it – just the first minute, or even 30 seconds of it. Getting started is the only thing in the world that matters.

Clear away distractions. Turn everything off. Close all programs. There should just be you, and your task.”

That’s exactly what I preach in Personal Productivity OS. Absolutely nothing changed. 

Or take this post on productivity hacks: while some of the tools aren’t up to date (is voicemail still a thing?), he says: “Each day put three things you want to get done on a 3×5 card”. Guess what I just did today. 

Or look at this list of Amazon best-sellers right now, today, in 2025 – among the top 50, there are:

• #15: The 48 Laws of Power by Robert Greene (published in 1998)
• #16: How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie (published in 1936)
• #18: The Four Agreements by Don Miguel Ruiz (published in 1997)
• #33: The Power of Now by Eckhart Tolle (published in 1997)
• #37: Think and Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill (published in 1936)
• #45: The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People (published in 1989)
• Unlisted, but a personal favorite: How to Live on 24 Hours a Day by Arnold Bennett (published in 1908)

… and that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

To this day, we’re reading Epictetus, Marcus Aurelius, Seneca and learning valuable lessons from them.

To this day, the Bible remains one of the most-read books worldwide.

To this day, we’re following the advice that our grandparents gave us (or at least some of it).

And it’s likely that we’re going to continue to do so.

To understand why, let’s travel back in time, to a deli at Broadway and 51st in NYC.

[1] The Lindy Effect 

This is Lindy’s Delicatessen, known for its cheesecake that “was ambrosia”, according to one frequent guest. In the 60s, comedians in New York would meet up here after their shows to discuss their recent shows.

One of them, Albert Goldman, theorized that the amount of comedic material said comedians have is constant – and that therefore, the less shows a comedian performs in, the longer their career will last. 

48 years later, Nassim Nicholas Taleb – to this day one of the authors that produces the most cognitive dissonance inside of me, given that his insights are incredible but he appears to be an absolute douchebag – properly generalized the Lindy Effect in his book “Antifragile”: 

If a book has been in print for forty years, I can expect it to be in print for another forty years. But, and that is the main difference, if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another fifty years. This, simply, as a rule, tells you why things that have been around for a long time are not "aging" like persons, but "aging" in reverse. Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy. This is an indicator of some robustness. The robustness of an item is proportional to its life!

Following this logic, this means: advice that stood the test of time is likely to continue to stand the test of time. Advice from 2010 still true today will still stand in 2040. Advice from 1936 (eg. Dale Carnegie) that definitely still works today, can be expected to continue working in 2114 (feels crazy to type this out, that’s not a year, is it?). 

Which brings me to my second point. 

[2] The world will change, but human nature won’t 

By and large, human nature is still similar to the one we had 2000 years ago. Of course, we’ve become more educated, but a lot of our behavior can still be traced back to stone-age hunter gatherers. If we assume the Lindy Effect to be true, this will still be the case 2000 years from now. 

Regardless of what the future brings, as long as the earth is still populated and run by humans (yes, this is an assumption!), understanding human nature will continue to be a fantastic way to prepare for the future. 

And in a world that changes faster and faster, nailing the basics will be more important than ever: 

→ Rapid Learning

→ Critical Thinking

→ Problem Solving

→ Communication 

Study the things that have stood the test of time and continue to be relevant today; they’re your best bet that they’ll be relevant tomorrow. 

This includes: 

• Mental Models (Shane Parrish has a great 4-volume series on the most important ones)
• First Principles (eg. Mathematics, Physics, Logic)
• Philosophy (Marcus Aurelius, Epictetus, Seneca)
• Human Psychology 

This is why I believe that the future belongs to generalists. What you see here is a beautiful generalist skill stack: not specialized in anything, but well-rounded in everything. By getting the basics right, you’re setting yourself up to adapt to most new situations. 

Arguably the most relevant skill over the coming years. 

Question for you:

What “basic skill” would you want to improve? 

My answer: I’m tempted to still dig deeper on human psychology, and probably really do need to read 48 Laws of Power. 

Deep thoughts for a Monday, I know. 

Great day to have a day today. 

Enjoy it, and enjoy life.

LFG. 🔥

PS: Ironically, Lindy’s is not a very good example for the Lindy Effect – after having been in operation since 1921, the restaurant eventually shut down in 2018. A damn shame – really would’ve wanted to try that cheesecake. 

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